MARVIN VETTORI VS ANDREW SANCHEZ prediction

Marvin Vettori
vs Andrew Sanchez

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 161

Andrew Sanchez has a 2-fight winning streak. Last time he fought Marc-Andre Barriault in May 2019, when he won by unanimous decision. Sanchez won the fight thanks to the 1st and 3rd round, where he successfully took down Barriault in both rounds and it was enough to edge a 3x 29-28 win. Vettori had a much dominant win against Cezar Ferreira in July 2019 with 2 successful takedowns and almost double the amount of strikes.

Marvin Vettori had a crack on current middleweight UFC Champion Israel Adesanya a year and a half ago at UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs Gaethje, where he lost by split decision. He is a very capable grappler, having won 8 out of his 13 wins by submission. He is not an extremely great striker. 5 of his 6 UFC fights ended via decision, which could indicate, that he doesn’t possess power in his strikesVettori has fought against some talented strikers before (Adesanya for instance) and was able to put them down. However, Sanchez does have a 100% takedowns defense according to the UFC stats. But if it actually went to the ground, Vettori could do some damage and possibly go for a submission.

Andrew Sanchez is a former RFA Middleweight Champion and a TUF 23 Light Heavyweight winner. He has already had 6 fights in the UFC so far, against some notable fighters like Khalil Rountree Jr. and former title challenger Anthony Smith. He lands almost 5 significant strikes per minute and has a 100% takedowns defense. However 3 out of his 4 losses came by a KO, so his chin won’t be any good. As we said he does throw a lot of significant strikes per minute but he also absorbs almost the same amount of strikes, meaning his striking defense is not particularly great. He also averages almost successful 3 takedowns per 15 minutes and is kind of shooting for a takedown a lot. That could be because most of his fights in the UFC were against strikers (Rountree, Anthony Smith, Barriault). He has yet to face a grappler or a BJJ fighter.

Scenarios

This fight will probably go to the judge’s decision. Fights of both fighters usually ended by decision and neither of them are able to pull a trigger. Sanchez will probably try to keep this fight standing, since Vettori’s gameplan will be to put the fight on the ground. Anyway, there’s a little chance, that the bout will end in the first round or by finish. This fight could however play out on the ground. 

As mentioned before, Sanchez won’t probably have a durable chin, since 3 losses came by TKO/KO. Against now retired Ryan Janes, Sanchez ate almost 160 significant strikes, before the fight was called off in the third round. Vettori is not an incredible striker like Adesanya or other middleweight monsters (Costa, Romero and more), and his strike accuracy is not that great, so it is still more likely that Vettori won’t knockout Sanchez. 

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