SERGIO PETTIS VS ALEX PEREZ prediction

Sergio Pettis
vs Alex Perez

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 159

Sergio Pettis didn´t have luck in his last fights and he lost both of them by decision with one experienced grappler and one aggressive striker. And this aggressiveness could by something that will make him real problem because Alex Perez has quite dynamic style of striking and we could see that Pettis didn´t deal well with this style. But on the other side Sergio will now have a slight reach advantage that could help him to keep fight calmer than with Rob Font. Alex Perez had last loss with Joseph Benavidez which was quite a strange loss and he definitely had a good chance to dominate in that fight. And Joseph Benavidez is also totally different type of fighter than Sergio. 

When we take a look at Sergio Pettis we can see that he is more calm type of striker. He is not so explosive and he rather waits little bit for the right moment and stays safe. That´s the best option for him and if he meets someone more active it becomes much harder for him to dominate. Same as his brother Anthony, thanks to his taekwondo background Sergio can throw very creative kicks that can surprise his opponents. He is also very accurate with his punches and that´s another advantage against Alex Perez which misses a lot. Sergio is good especially in counter striking. He knows how to wait for the right moment and then he throws nice clean shot with his right hand. Another important skill is his front jab which is very effective and successful very often. On the other side he doesn´t have such a big power so he has far less chance for a knockout. When other fighters want to take him down it is not easy. He is really excellent in takedown defense and if he gets on his back he still moves a lot and can get up very quickly. 

And there is a chance that we will see that because Alex Perez will probably try to fight with Sergio on the ground if he won´t be successful in striking. It will be really hard to keep Sergio on the ground but Alex has also some good skills in wrestling and he is definitely able to take other guys down. On the other side Sergio will definitely not let it to him for free. But Alex can be also dangerous on his legs. As we said he is quite an aggressive type of striker and he doesn´t wait that much. He has more powerful punches then Sergio and he definitely has bigger chance for knockout. But that aggressive style means that he is not so accurate and he misses often. This can be good opportunity for Sergio´s counter striking. We won´t probably see a lot of kicks from Alex. He is more boxing type and his hands are definitely one of his biggest guns to this fight.

 

Scenarios

We expect that Sergio will wait a lot at least in the first round and try to keep long distance by counter striking, front jab and long kicks. A lot will depend on Alex and his ability to close distance and land hard punches. But he will probably be able to do that and that will be a problem for Sergio Pettis. There is a very small chance that this fight will end by submission because Sergio will not probably want to take Alex down and if Alex will take Sergio down it will mean that Sergio is better in striking and he will rather try to stand up back on his feet. And Alex will probably rather try to land heavy shots on the ground then going for submission. We also don´t expect that Sergio will win by KO or TKO. It is little bit risky because he still has very accurate punches but as we said he is not so strong and he has a better chance to win by keeping long distance and collecting points by controlling fight. Alex Perez has much bigger chance for knockout but he has also ability to win by decision.

SEE PREDICTIONS FOR OTHER FIGHTS AT UFC FIGHT NIGHT 159