JORGE MASVIDAL VS NATE DIAZ prediction

Jorge Masvidal
vs Nate Diaz

UFC 244

Jorge Masvidal will have his third fight in this year after two wins against top welterweight fighters (Till and Askren). In both wins he was able to claim 3 post-fight bonuses and it is more than likely, that he’ll get at least one bonus after this fight against the younger of Diaz brothers, Nate. Nate is coming back after an incredible and dominant fight against now turned welterweight Anthony Pettis. He looked better than ever and it looked like he was not just coming back to the octagon after 3 years of hiatus. 

Jorge Masvidal is an UFC veteran having fought 17 times under the UFC organization. He’ll have his 48th MMA professional fight in his career, so he’s been through it all and has gained a lot of experience. He is primarily a striker with great lowkicks and powerful strikes. He has a typical kickboxing/muay thai stance, standing tall ready to block lowkicks with his knees or shin. Most of the time he waits for the opportunity to counterstrike his opponent with a fast combo. He has a very durable chin. He was knocked out only once in his professional career and he was never finished in the UFC. He is a very skillful kickboxer, as he showed against Donald Cerrone. He is not a big fan of fighting on the ground, as it looks like he never attempts any takedowns.

Nate Diaz is a different animal than Masvidal. His awkward style of fighting, especially while standing up, is making it hard for anyone to predict, what Diaz is going to do next. He has borrowed the figting style from his older brother Nick, as both of them throw a ton of strikes, but don’t put a lot of power behind them. Nate also does not kick very often, and when he does, it is a very strange kick. As a BJJ black belt under Cesar Gracie he has 12 submission wins in his career, but also as Masvidal, he almost never attempts any takedowns. His big weapon is fighting in the clinch. In the clinch he is very capable of applying dirty boxing and once opponent is in Diaz’s clinch, it is very likely he’s going to stay there for some time. Another one of his strenghts is stamina. Just like Nick, Nate does not get tired. If not training, he runs marathons and does some triathlons. His main weaknesses are checking leg kicks and powerful wrestlers, someone who is going to shoot for a takedown and grind on the ground. His loss against Rafael Dos Anjos showed both of his weaknesses. Dos Anjos pretty much destroyed his front leg and when Dos Anjos took Diaz down, it was ugly for Diaz and he had no answer. Diaz just like Masvidal is very tough and his chin is made of steel. He has been finished only twice during his career and he fought some top strikers like McGregor 2x, Pettis, Cerrone, Dos Anjos, Henderson and more

Scenarios

This fight has one thing, that is for sure it’s going to happen. It will get at least one post-fight bonus, whether it will be a Fight of the Night bonus or Perfomance of the Night. Both of them are making really beautiful fights. It is almost sure, that this fight won’t go to the ground. Both fighters are attempting hardly any takedowns. So the chances of this fight ending by submission are very slim. But if it actually by some miracle goes to the ground, then Diaz is a definite favorite for ending this fight by submission. A BJJ black belt with 12 wins by submission? That speaks for itself. 

Both fighters have chins of steel. neither one of them got knocked out often in their MMA careers. If there will be a knock out win, it will come in the later rounds. Masvidal and Diaz start their fights a bit slower, especially Diaz. Although Masvidal knocked out Askren within the first 5 seconds, but we wont see anything like that in this fight. We shouldn’t expect a KO win by Diaz, as he rarely knocks anyone out. Most of wins came by submission. If this goes to the judges‘ decision, Masvidal is more likely to win as he would probably land more leg kicks and do well in the clinch. For Diaz to win by decision, he would have to take this fight to he ground, be on top and just play with Masvidal.